When are US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?

US monthly retail sales overview

Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Consensus estimates point to a steep fall of 8% for March in the wake of the coronavirus-induced lockdowns. Sales excluding automobiles (core retail sales) are also anticipated to have plunged by 4.8% during the reported month, while the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is expected to decline by 2%.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Given that investors continue to asses the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the market reaction to the data is likely to be limited. As FXStreet’s analyst Joseph Trevisani reports: “Currency markets are not so inured to this catastrophe that a worse than forecast retail sales for March, implying even greater collapses in the months ahead and by extension to the rest of the world, will not bring back the dollar safety trade.”

Ahead of the important release, FXStreet Yohay Elam provided important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “Critical resistance awaits at 1.10, which is a psychologically significant level, the edge of uptrend resistance, and close to the 200 SMA. Further up, 1.1050 held the currency pair down in late March, 1.1090 capped it on the way up and 1.1150 was the high point around that time. Support awaits at 1.0930, a swing high from last week, followed by 1.0885, a support line from earlier this week, and then by 1.0830 and 1.0770.”

Key Notes

US Retail Sales March Preview: Can consumers stare down unemployment?

EUR/USD Forecast: Ready to turn down? Easter is over and dark corona clouds are gathering

EUR/USD: Taking the stairs up and the elevator down

About US retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).