Emerging Markets: A bumpy road definitely lies ahead – Morgan Stanley

If we look back at the last global crisis, emerging markets actually recovered from the 2008 global financial crisis relatively unscathed. Economists at Morgan Stanley believe 2020 will be different, at least for three reasons.

Key quotes

“The starting situation is weaker now than in 2008. In many emerging markets, vulnerabilities such as public debt and current account deficits are much higher.”

“China was able to keep economic growth above 9 percent in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. But now China will be lucky to achieve even half that growth in 2020. This will inevitably translate into lower demand for goods and inputs supplied by other emerging markets.”

“Lower oil prices are obviously bad news for net oil exporters. But even for the vast majority of emerging markets that are net importers, a lower price may not help much.”