29 Jun 2014
Most specs positioning changes concentrated in CAD, CHF - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - The FX Team at TDS, reviews the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders Report, for the week ending Tuesday, June 24th.
Key Quotes
"The more significant changes in speculative positioning over the past week, as reflected in the CFTC data for the week through June 24th, were concentrated in the CAD and CHF. In the first instance, the shift was material while in the second, the move was statistically significant but the change was small in absolute terms."
"CAD short-covering is one of the main feature of this week’s IMM positioning report. Net CAD shorts have been in retreat for most of the year—since peaking at -70k contracts in January. There was one big wave of CAD short covering in March (more or less halving the market exposure to –33k at the time) and the latest data reflect another wave of sizeable position liquidation, taking the net CAD short to just -5.3k contracts. That is the smallest bet against the CAD since October last year. Speculative accounts have been consistently short CAD on aggregate since early 2013, however. As fundamental prospects have not turned materially back in the CAD’s favour, in our opinion at least, investors may start to view the latest rise in the currency as an opportunity to rebuild CAD shorts."
"Elsewhere, our data analysis highlights the switch in CHF positioning as significant but the overall change is actually quite small—a small net long of +3.5k contracts last week has turned into a small net short of –5.3k this week. Investors have kept exposure here relatively limited since mid-May and still seem to be unsure of what to do with the CHF."
"Positioning in the majors was little changed this week; the market retains a decent net short EUR position of –57.5k contracts but this was essentially unchanged from the –61.8k position reported for the June 17th week. Ditto for net JPY shorts and net GBP longs (at -71.2k contracts this week versus –68k contracts last and +49.7k versus +52.5k" respectively).
"Net AUD longs were pushed to +33.4k (+27.0k last) and net NZD longs were nearly doubled (to just +6.1k, from +3.7k) this week, suggesting a preference for risk which failed to spill over in the MXN (net longs virtually unchanged on the week at +68.9k)."
Key Quotes
"The more significant changes in speculative positioning over the past week, as reflected in the CFTC data for the week through June 24th, were concentrated in the CAD and CHF. In the first instance, the shift was material while in the second, the move was statistically significant but the change was small in absolute terms."
"CAD short-covering is one of the main feature of this week’s IMM positioning report. Net CAD shorts have been in retreat for most of the year—since peaking at -70k contracts in January. There was one big wave of CAD short covering in March (more or less halving the market exposure to –33k at the time) and the latest data reflect another wave of sizeable position liquidation, taking the net CAD short to just -5.3k contracts. That is the smallest bet against the CAD since October last year. Speculative accounts have been consistently short CAD on aggregate since early 2013, however. As fundamental prospects have not turned materially back in the CAD’s favour, in our opinion at least, investors may start to view the latest rise in the currency as an opportunity to rebuild CAD shorts."
"Elsewhere, our data analysis highlights the switch in CHF positioning as significant but the overall change is actually quite small—a small net long of +3.5k contracts last week has turned into a small net short of –5.3k this week. Investors have kept exposure here relatively limited since mid-May and still seem to be unsure of what to do with the CHF."
"Positioning in the majors was little changed this week; the market retains a decent net short EUR position of –57.5k contracts but this was essentially unchanged from the –61.8k position reported for the June 17th week. Ditto for net JPY shorts and net GBP longs (at -71.2k contracts this week versus –68k contracts last and +49.7k versus +52.5k" respectively).
"Net AUD longs were pushed to +33.4k (+27.0k last) and net NZD longs were nearly doubled (to just +6.1k, from +3.7k) this week, suggesting a preference for risk which failed to spill over in the MXN (net longs virtually unchanged on the week at +68.9k)."