NY Fed survey: Probability of losing one's job in next 12 months rose to 16.0% in July

US' household expectations regarding their employment prospects and their year-ahead financial situation slightly deteriorated in July after two months of gradual improvement, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York noted in its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Key takeaways

"Median inflation expectations increased at the one-year horizon from 2.7% in June to 2.9% in July."

"The median one-year ahead expected change in the price of gasoline decreased sharply to 5.4% in July, after reaching a series' high of 9% in June."

"Median one-year ahead expected earnings growth increased to 2.0% in July, from a series' low of 1.6% in June."

"Mean unemployment expectations started increasing again in July after three consecutive months of decline since reaching a series high of 50.9% in March. From 35.1% in June, it went up to 39.3% in July."

"The mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months rose from 15.0% in June to 16.0% in July, above its 2019 average of 14.3% and its year-ago value of 13.8%."

Market reaction 

The US Dollar Index largely ignored this report and was last seen gaining 0.04% on the day at 93.43.