Canada: Retail sales forecast to rise by 19% in June – TDS

On Friday, Statistics Canada will release Retail Sales figures for June. Previewing this data, "retail sales are forecast to rise by another 19% in June, building on a similar increase from May," noted TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

"This is below the early tracking from StatCan for a 24.5% increase and would leave total sales 2.5% below year-ago levels, putting Canada slightly behind the US recovery (+1.1% y/y). Motor vehicles should once again drive the headline print on another large increase in auto sales, leaving the ex-autos measure up 13.5%."

"Google mobility data has shown a steady increase in time spent at retail locations in June, which should support broad strength among core components like apparel and general merchandise, although monthly grocery purchases remain well above pre-COVID levels even after a 12.5% drop from March."

"Real retail sales should see a (slightly) smaller increase, owing to a 1.3% increase in consumer goods prices."