When are the UK jobs and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK Jobs report overview

Early Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the August month Claimant Count figures together with the Unemployment Rate in the three months to July at 06:00 AM GMT. Although Brexit headlines are likely to keep the driver’s seat, the recent doubts over whether the return of activities actually contributed to the employment.

The UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to July, to decline from the previous -1.2% to -1.3%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are seen staying down around -0.2% as prior.

The number of people seeking jobless benefits, namely the Claimant Count Change, is likely to have rose by 100K in August versus +94.4K seen last. Further, the ILO unemployment rate is expected to pick up from 3.9% to 4.1% during the three months ending in July.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined around 20-pips in deviations up to + or -2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements over 60-70 pips.

How could they affect GBP/USD?

GBP/USD keeps Monday’s recovery moves while printing mild gains around 1.2850 during the pre-London open on Tuesday. While the UK’s House of Commons’ rejection to a move to stop the Internal Market Bill, proposed by the opposition Labour Party, keep questioning the Cable bulls, the recent risk-on sentiment, mainly backed by US-China trade headlines, kept the quote positive.

Hence, traders will keep eyes on the key employment figures for the fresh impulse to extend the latest run-up. Considering the heavy push by the Tory government, the British jobs report could keep the GBP/USD pair directed towards August month’s low near 1.2980. However, hopes of witnessing disappointments from the data, followed by the pair’s extended weakness, can’t be ruled out as British industries remain a sceptic of the government’s efforts amid fears of economic slowdown and less demand.

Technically, sellers can aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement of May-September upside, near 1.2780, during the fresh downside. However, a 200-day EMA level of 1.2751 will question the bears afterward. On the contrary, a successful break of August month’s low near 1.2980 becomes necessary to convince the buyers before directing them to the 1.3000 threshold.

Key notes

GBP/USD Forecast: Brexit keeps spooking buyers

GBP/USD: Bears attack 1.2850 as UK policymakers keep Internal Market Bill on table

GBP/USD Price Analysis: 200-day EMA returns to the bears’ radars

About UK jobs

The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).