COVID-19 and no-deal Brexit could cost UK GBP134 B a year – Baker & McKenzie

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic and a no-deal Brexit with the European Union (EU) could cost the UK’s GDP around GBP134 billion ($174 billion) each year for a decade, noted a law firm, Baker & McKenzie, in a research report titled "The Future of UK Trade: Merged Realities of Brexit and COVID-19."

Key takeaways

“The COVID-19 outbreak will cut Britain's GDP by 2.2% below the levels anticipated before the outbreak.”

“Brexit, even with a trade deal, would cut GDP by 3.1% in the long-run relative to a hypothetical scenario where the UK remained in the EU, while exports of goods would be 6.3% lower. Without a trade deal, the cost of Brexit would increase to 3.9% of GDP in the long run.”

"Despite businesses taking steps to offset the added costs of Brexit by reconfiguring supply chains, the decline in export revenues for UK manufacturers will be substantial.”

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