Gold Price Analysis: Rising real yields to trigger a fall to $1670 on XAU/USD – Credit Suisse

Rising Real Yields and still elevated long positioning are expected to put further pressure on gold, which has completed a top below $1765, raising the prospect of a much more serious fall, per Credit Suisse.

See – Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD to near the confluence support zone at $1,660-$1,670 – DBS Bank

Key quotes

“Gold maintains its tight inverse relationship with US Real Yields, which we expect to rise further, which should put further pressure on the yellow metal.”

“CFTC positioning data shows the net long from extreme levels is unwinding, but still in our view has scope to unwind further yet and potentially significantly so.”

“Gold has finally bowed to rising yields and the strengthening USD and key support at $1761 was recently cleared for the completion of a large top. The market has reinforced this top with a break below the 38.2% retracement of the 2018/2020 bull trend at $1726 and we look for a fall to $1670 next, then $1620/15.” 

“Resistance at the $1761 breakdown point now ideally caps to keep the immediate risk lower.”