22 Jul 2014
RBA Stevens could deliver some AUD headlines - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, reviews the day ahead, paying special attention to RBA's Stevens speech, due at 3GMT.
Key Quotes
"RBA Governor Stevens speaks to the annual Anika Foundation lunch in Sydney from 1pm local/11am Sing/HK. The event will be well attended by Westpac staff and is always worthwhile but the proximity of the Q2 CPI data seems to preclude any shift in commentary on monetary policy. Further headlines on AUD however could be delivered, especially in the Q&A session."
"Asia’s data calendar is quiet but Japanese markets reopen after their long weekend. Indonesia will be in focus, with the official results of the presidential election due. Market favourite Jokowi leads most independent vote counts but Prabowo is not conceding, with a legal challenge likely. IDR traded well in London NDF trade but we see risks of a rupiah selloff in coming days as Prabowo fights on."
"The US data calendar is crowded. June CPI will be watched with interest even though the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is the PCE deflator. Consensus is for inflation to hold at 2.1% y/y headline, 2.0% y/y ex-food & energy, well ahead of the 1.5% y/y reading on core PCE, which many Fed officials aren’t convinced is yet on a sustained up trend. June existing home sales are seen rising 2% m/m, which would still leave sales well below the mid-July high and about -30% versus the 2005 cycle peak. The Richmond Fed index is seen ticking up to +5 in July from +3."
Key Quotes
"RBA Governor Stevens speaks to the annual Anika Foundation lunch in Sydney from 1pm local/11am Sing/HK. The event will be well attended by Westpac staff and is always worthwhile but the proximity of the Q2 CPI data seems to preclude any shift in commentary on monetary policy. Further headlines on AUD however could be delivered, especially in the Q&A session."
"Asia’s data calendar is quiet but Japanese markets reopen after their long weekend. Indonesia will be in focus, with the official results of the presidential election due. Market favourite Jokowi leads most independent vote counts but Prabowo is not conceding, with a legal challenge likely. IDR traded well in London NDF trade but we see risks of a rupiah selloff in coming days as Prabowo fights on."
"The US data calendar is crowded. June CPI will be watched with interest even though the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is the PCE deflator. Consensus is for inflation to hold at 2.1% y/y headline, 2.0% y/y ex-food & energy, well ahead of the 1.5% y/y reading on core PCE, which many Fed officials aren’t convinced is yet on a sustained up trend. June existing home sales are seen rising 2% m/m, which would still leave sales well below the mid-July high and about -30% versus the 2005 cycle peak. The Richmond Fed index is seen ticking up to +5 in July from +3."