25 Jul 2014
USDCAD: Commodity Block Under Pressure – TD Securities
FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of analysts suggest that USD/CAD should see a rebound next week following the Fed monetary policy meeting, after which the FOMC is expected to announce further tapering and a slight upgrade of the US growth forecast.
Key quotes
“The CAD just looks to be down in sympathy with its commodity peers so far today.”
“There is precious little news to drive the CAD—no domestic data and only US durable goods on tap.”
“The FOMC meeting next week may start to impinge on the market’s desire to extend ranges significantly but we expect a generally USD-positive outcome—more tapering and a modest upgrade to the growth outlook.”
“That should help underpin the rebound in USD/CAD a little more.”
“We are bullish on the outlook for USD/CAD overall and note that while the market has moved sideways to slightly higher overall this week, the net effect has been to push USD,CAD through trend resistance in the mid 1.07 area, suggesting that that this week’s consolidation is resolving itself in bullish fashion, as we expected.”
“An important test for the USD remains just above the market at 1.0815/25 where the old range lows and the 200-day MA converge.”
“But our read of the charts suggests that the late week break out in USD/CAD—if sustained—will put the USD on track for a push to the low 1.09s.”
Key quotes
“The CAD just looks to be down in sympathy with its commodity peers so far today.”
“There is precious little news to drive the CAD—no domestic data and only US durable goods on tap.”
“The FOMC meeting next week may start to impinge on the market’s desire to extend ranges significantly but we expect a generally USD-positive outcome—more tapering and a modest upgrade to the growth outlook.”
“That should help underpin the rebound in USD/CAD a little more.”
“We are bullish on the outlook for USD/CAD overall and note that while the market has moved sideways to slightly higher overall this week, the net effect has been to push USD,CAD through trend resistance in the mid 1.07 area, suggesting that that this week’s consolidation is resolving itself in bullish fashion, as we expected.”
“An important test for the USD remains just above the market at 1.0815/25 where the old range lows and the 200-day MA converge.”
“But our read of the charts suggests that the late week break out in USD/CAD—if sustained—will put the USD on track for a push to the low 1.09s.”