US call for OPEC to boost oil output unlikely to threaten current market deficit – Goldman Sachs

In the view of the analysts at Goldman Sachs, “White house call to OPEC to boost oil output is unlikely to lead to higher production in the short term, given demand threat from Delta variant.”

Key quotes

"By year-end, an additional hike in OPEC+ quotas appears increasingly necessary given recent supply disappointments globally"

"We don’t see recent White House statement as threatening current market deficit nor pace of rebalancing in 2H21."

"Year-end Brent forecast of $80/bbl unchanged."

"We forecast that OPEC+ spare capacity will be fully normalized by spring 2022."

"In short term, delta threat to oil demand has already softened global balance, with deficit narrowing from 2.3 to 1.0 mb/d.”

"Looking beyond delta headwind, we expect oil demand recovery to continue alongside rising vaccination rates."

“A delay in ramp-up in Iran exports would only have a small bullish impact on oil later this year.”