Reuters Poll: Delta darkens US Q3 growth views, Fed taper announcement expected in November

“The US economic rebound has been dented in Q3, partly on the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant,” per Reuters September 13-16 poll of 51 economists. The economists surveyed also pushed their expectations back to November for when the Federal Reserve announces an impending policy shift.

Key quotes

For now, most economists say the growth slowdown will be temporary, and so far have not made any major changes to a strong outlook for next year.

The median Q3 growth forecast in the Sept. 13-16 Reuters poll was slashed to a 4.4% seasonally adjusted annualized rate from 7.0% just a month ago and well below the second quarter's 6.6% growth, with the range showing lower lows and lower highs.

The Q4 median was chopped to 5.1% from 5.9%.

Nearly 85% of 51 economists who responded to an extra question in the poll said the spread of the Delta variant had a material impact on their quarterly GDP growth forecasts over the last month.

But the growth outlook for next year is a still-robust 4.2%, unchanged from the August poll, and 2.3% in 2023, only a notch lower than the 2.4% predicted last month.

In the meantime, the expected timing of the Fed's taper announcement has shifted decisively over the past month, partly because inflation also remains elevated.

Nearly three-quarters of respondents, 36 of 49, said the taper announcement will come in November and not this month as previously thought.

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