EUR/NOK set for a move higher in Q4 as krone potential looks exhausted – Danske Bank

The Norwegian krone has recently experienced a rally supported by Norges Bank initiating its hiking cycle as well as a surge in natural gas prices. Economists at Danske Bank maintain a negative view on NOK but lower the EUR/NOK profile in light of higher than-anticipated oil and gas prices. 

Krone potential exhausted as NOK rates pricing looks stretched

“The NOK has found strong support since summer from both relative rates and soaring energy prices. Meanwhile, we increasingly see the NOK potential as exhausted and highlight that NOK rates pricing looks stretched and that NB will have to lower its daily NOK purchases in the coming month.”

“We maintain a negative view on NOK but lower the EUR/NOK profile in light of higher-than-anticipated oil and gas prices.” 

“We forecast EUR/NOK at 10.00 in 1M (from 10.30), 10.20 in 3M (from 10.40), 10.40 in 6M (from 10.60) and 10.40 in 12M (from 10.50).”