NZD/USD to consolidate within 0.68 into 2022 – DBS Bank

NZD/USD consolidated between 0.6750 and 0.7200 in 2H21. Economists at DBS Bank expect the kiwi to remain stable around the 0.68 level into 2022.

USD supported by the two Fed hikes in 4Q22

“Although the RBNZ expects further removal of monetary stimulus over time, it also considers high house prices as unsustainable and a challenge to monetary and financial stability. Hence, consensus might be overly enthusiastic in expecting the official cash rate to increase to 1.50% in 2022. We see USD supported by the two Fed hikes in 4Q22.”

“Consensus expects real GDP growth to slow to 3.5% in 2022 from a projected 5.3% in 2021, and CPI inflation to ease to 2.7% from 3.5%. The central bank (RBNZ) expects the cash rate to increase to 1.50% from a projected 0.75% at the end of 2021.” 

“NZD to consolidate within 0.68 into 2022.”