NZD/USD to stay below the 0.70 mark for the rest of the first quarter – ING

Economists at ING believe that economic data from New Zealand is not going to help the kiwi to recover. Subsequently, they expect the NZD/USD pair to remain below the 0.70 level in the next months.

Period of soft data ahead

“The data flow is set to be – for a change – not so supportive of NZD in the coming weeks as the economy faced the strains of the long Auckland lockdown in 4Q21. That said, the Kiwi economy had already moved above its pre-pandemic levels before the 4Q restrictions, and elevated inflation (4.9% in the 3Q reading) combined with very high house prices are still supporting the case for fast tightening by the RBNZ.” 

“Markets are pricing in six hikes in 2022 (we expect five), an expectation that may imply some easing of NZ border restrictions later in the year.”

“We think the risks for NZD are mostly stemming from its exposure to China, and NZD/USD may stay below the 0.70 mark for the rest of the first quarter.”