US Dollar Index to hold above 95.50 given still highly volatile geopolitical situation – ING

We will likely enter the weekend with more questions than answers on the Russia-Ukraine tensions. Therefore, analysts at ING continue to see the US dollar downside as contained given the still highly volatile geopolitical situation.

Greenback likely to find a floor soon

“There is a very high probability that we’ll get into the weekend with a still very blurry picture on geopolitical tensions. We think lingering uncertainty around current diplomatic developments should help put a floor under the dollar as safe-haven demand is unlikely to dissipate in the very near-term.”

“We’ll hear from Charles Evans, Christopher Waller, John Williams and Lael Brainard today after James Bullard continued to advocate in favour of front-loading rate hikes yesterday. Any sign from today’s speakers that they would also favour faster tightening could see markets go back to speculating on a 50bp March hike, a prospect that has been partially and gradually priced out in the past few days.”

“We continue to see any dollar weakness as being quite short-lived, and struggle to see DXY break decisively below 95.50 for now.”