10Y US-T yields to stall below 2% amid risk-off sentiment – Credit Suisse

10-year US Bond Yields have seen two successive failures to sustain breakouts above 2.00% into the weekly close and the risk of a corrective move lower is elevated, in the view of analysts at Credit Suisse. 

Still expect a move to 2.34% later in the year

“We are increasingly concerned that a risk-off move in equities could lead to a deeper correction, with the break below 1.90/895% likely to open up further downside towards 1.75/74%, which we expect to hold.” 

“From a medium-term perspective, the market maintains a multi-year yield base and its negative trend and momentum setup. With this in mind, we eventually expect further weakness, with the next major support zone seen at 2.16/18%, with our core objective for 2022 at 2.34%.”

“Given that 2.34% is a minor support, we do not expect it to act as a hard ceiling; it’s just that we expect the market to start moving into a range and become more mean-reverting around here, especially with psychological support not far above at 2.50%.”

“We see 2.615/2.645% as a ‘stretch target’.”