US dollar to surge higher if conflict in Ukraine escalate beyond this month – NBF

The trade-weighted US dollar has shown a limited reaction to Russia's major military invasion of Ukraine that took the world by surprise. If tensions persist over the coming months, the greenback would see a significant appreciation, economists at the National Bank of Canada report.

Baseline forecast still calls for a de-escalation of hostilities

“Should the conflict in Ukraine escalate beyond this month, the likelihood of a surge in the US dollar will increase significantly.”

“Our baseline forecast still calls for a de-escalation of hostilities, but we recognize that things could develop very differently.”