EUR/USD to fall on any positive result for Le Pen – MUFG

French election is starting to get some attention as recent polling has very much indicated positive momentum for Marine Le Pen who has clearly closed the gap to Macron. A good result for Le Pen is set to weigh on euro sentiment, economists at MUFG Bank report.

Le Pen closing the gap to Macron

“Polling from Politico indicates a clear narrowing of the gap with Macron’s support dropping 3ppts to 27% while Le Pen’s support over the same period has picked up 3ppts to 21%. Other polls have shown a bigger improvement for Le Pen.”

“Over 60% of the electorate now do not view far-right candidates as a threat to French democracy. But a Le Pen victory would still be bad news for Europe and would still be classed as anti-Europe although those policies have also been softened.”

“A Macron victory remains probable but a margin of defeat for Le Pen on Sunday of less than 3ppts would create higher uncertainty through to the second round election on 24th April and weigh further on an already weak euro.”