USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates no longer exist in the normal sense – Commerzbank

USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates do not exist in the normal sense, economists at Commerzbank report. 

Ruble is no longer a freely convertible currency

“USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates no longer exist in the normal sense, when Russia's central bank, itself, cannot transact in USD or EUR.” 

“The ruble is no longer a freely convertible currency, hence exchange rate numbers which we observe on our screens are a moot point.”

“Granted, CBR still tries to produce a fix which attempts to better guide towards a balance between demand and supply of FX, but this is not really a market-driven exchange rate.”

“Our symbolic forecasts for the ruble are significantly weaker than today’s levels in order to portray that we see the impact of sanctions playing out over a much longer period of time, which is unlikely to be adequately priced in today (we do not think it will resemble a one-off shock pattern, where the maximum impact occurs immediately, followed by recovery over the medium-term).”