USD/RUB: Any loosening on controls for domestics could see the rouble weaken – ING

Consensus expects a 200bp Russian rate cut today. Furthermore, markets will be closely watching the central bank eases capital controls, which could put depreciation pressure on the rouble, economists at ING report.

Interest to see whether the central bank eases any capital controls in light of rouble strength 

“The Russian central bank is widely expected to cut rates 200bp today to 15%. The rate cut is expected now that USD/RUB is artificially trading very low at 72 – driven by no natural buyers (foreigners cannot sell Russian assets and Russian imports have collapsed) and continued selling of energy FX receipts.”

“No change is expected on controls for foreigners but enforced FX sales for the Russian export community have recently been softened up. Any loosening on controls for domestics could see the rouble weaken on a sign that Russian authorities want a weaker rouble for budgetary purposes.”