IEA revises down oil demand growth projections for 2022 by 70,000 bpd

In its monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised down oil demand growth projections for this year by 70,000 bpd on Chinese lockdowns and high prices.

Additional takeaways

Refinery runs set to ramp up by 4.7 mln bpd between now and august but market tightness will continue.

Global observed oil inventories declined by 45 mln barrels in March.

Global refinery margins have surged due to depleted product inventories, constrained refinery activity.

Russia oil exports of 8.1 mln bpd were back to the January February average.

New embargoes could accelerate reorientation of trade flows in russian oil toward Asia.

Despite sanctions, total Russian oil exports increased month-on-month in April by 620,000 bpd.

Russian oil supply losses could expand to around 3 mln bpd from July onwards.

Sees overall decline of Russian supply by 1.6 mln bpd in May and 2 mln bpd in June.

Russia shut in nearly 1 mln bpd of oil in April, driving down world oil supply to 98.1 mln bpd.

Russia sanctions, lack of storage will cause russian producers to shut in more wells.

Expects steadily rising volumes from Mideast OPEC+ states, US as China covid lockdowns sap demand.

Does not expect acute supply deficit amid worsening russian supply disruption.