NZD/USD: RBNZ’s proactive stance points to the kiwi peaking earlier than peers – ANZ

The kiwi jumped on USD weakness as risk sentiment bounced on Thursday. However, economists at ANZ Bank see the New Zealand dollar at risk of peaking before its peers.

Heightened hard landing risks in NZ

“Bloomberg ran an interesting opinion piece saying that the RBNZ has the least work to do (as measured by the gap between the current OCR and one implied by the Taylor rule), but noted that the ECB, BoE, RBA and Fed have the most work to do (in that order).”

“Given what’s already priced in and projected will well and truly close the gap between the current OCR and one implied by the Taylor rule, and how quickly the RBNZ has got to where it is now, that also speaks to heightened hard landing risks, and the NZD peaking before others.”