A consolidation of the hawkish pricing can help the US dollar – ING

Friday's speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole has been regarded as a pivotal event for markets. However, Powell may not want to shock the markets (in either direction), economists at ING report.

Fireworks not guaranteed

“We see a quite elevated risk that Powell may end up broadly matching the generally hawkish market expectations and avert any significant market shock.”

“We think that markets may find enough reason to push their peak rate pricing a bit closer to the 4.0% mark today and stir away from pricing back more than the current 1-2 rate cuts in 2023, which should ultimately offer some support to the dollar into next weeks’ payrolls release.” 

“We think DXY may touch 110.00 in the coming days, if not today.”  

“Despite not being our baseline case, the downside risks to the dollar are non-negligible today. A more alarming tone on recession and any hints that the Fed will be more considerate when it comes to tightening to avert a major dampening impact on the economy would likely trigger an asymmetric negative reaction on the dollar.”