US: Amongst bulk of economic releases, focus shifts on retail sales - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that after a rather subdued week for US economic reports, investors are bombarded with a barrage of reports today. 

Key Quotes

“The most important of which is June retail sales.  The risk is on the downside, and the market already knows that auto sales slowed sequentially.   The GDP component rose 0.4% in May and is expected to rise 0.3% in June.  If so the Q2 monthly average would be about 0.5%, which is nearly double Q1 average, which doubled the Q4 15 average.   

The US also reports June CPI.  The core rate is expected to be steady at 2.2%.  Industrial output and manufacturing are expected to recoup all or most of the 0.4% decline seen in May.   May’s business inventories will be helpful in calculating Q2 GDP, but is unlikely to be a market mover. 

The Empire State manufacturing report will be among the first reads of Q3 activity.   In that vein, University of Michigan’s offers its preliminary estimate of July consumer confidence.  A  fall in inflation expectations could offer Treasuries some support after a heavy week that saw 10-year yields rise 10 bp.”